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What Krispy Kreme’s Hub-and-Spoke Bakery Model Can Teach Chain Operators

Original publication date
Sep 30, 2021
Archive status
Historical archive
Original source
FoodBud WeChat archive
Original publication source
FoodBud WeChat source
This is an English adaptation of a FoodBud historical article originally published on September 30, 2021.

Krispy Kreme opened its first shop in 1937 and has been operating for more than 80 years. By 2021 it had returned to the public markets, giving foodservice-chain operators a useful case study in brand longevity, channel redesign, M&A, and bakery supply-chain architecture.

The company is best known for glazed doughnuts and the “Hot Now” light. Founder Vernon Rudolph first sold doughnuts through local grocery stores in Winston-Salem, North Carolina. Beatrice Foods acquired Krispy Kreme in 1976; after Rudolph’s death, franchisees bought the company back. Krispy Kreme listed in 2000, later went through severe financial difficulty, and was taken private by JAB Holding in 2016.

In May 2016, Krispy Kreme agreed to be acquired by JAB Beech for $21 per share in cash, valuing the equity at about $1.35 billion, a 25% premium to its closing price. The transaction closed on July 27, 2016. JAB, which focuses on long-term investments in premium consumer brands, also held coffee assets including Keurig Green Mountain, Jacobs Douwe Egberts, and Peet’s Coffee & Tea.

After the take-private, Krispy Kreme shifted away from traditional wholesale toward an omnichannel model built around fresh, short-shelf-life daily delivery and digital channels.

IPO and Key 2021 Market Data

In July 2021, Krispy Kreme listed on Nasdaq under the ticker “DNUT.” The IPO price was $17 per share, below the earlier indicated range of $21 to $24. The company issued 29.4 million shares and raised about $500 million, with part of the proceeds used to repay $120 million of debt.

At listing, the stock opened at $16.30 and closed at $21.00, up 23.53% from the IPO price. By September 29, 2021, the share price was $14.21 and the market capitalization was $2.375 billion, down from roughly $3.4 billion at listing.

Selected operating and financial data from the article:

  • In 2020, Krispy Kreme sold 1.3 billion doughnuts across 30 countries.
  • In a 2021 consumer survey, 73% of respondents said that if they could eat only one doughnut brand for the rest of their lives, they would choose Krispy Kreme.
  • More than 75% of doughnuts were sold by the half-dozen or dozen.
  • In 2020, more than 64% of sales came from glazed doughnuts.
  • More than one-third of global sales came from markets outside the United States.
  • At the end of Q1 2021, about 84% of sales came from the United States and Canada.
  • Fiscal 2020 revenue was $1.1 billion, after $796 million and $959 million in the prior two fiscal years.
  • For the fiscal year ended January 3, 2021, net loss was $60.94 million, after net losses of $12.44 million and $34.00 million in the prior two fiscal years.
  • Adjusted net income for the fiscal year ended January 3, 2021 was $47.94 million, compared with $52.64 million and $55.19 million in the prior two fiscal years.
  • For the three months ended April 4, 2021, revenue was $322 million, compared with $261 million in the prior-year period.
  • Net loss for the same three-month period was $378,000, compared with a net loss of $10.95 million in the prior-year period.
  • Adjusted net income for the same three-month period was $18.85 million, compared with $12.10 million in the prior-year period.
  • From fiscal 2016 to fiscal 2020, the number of locations grew from 5,720 to 8,275.
  • In fiscal 2020, Krispy Kreme generated 38 billion media impressions.

Insomnia Cookies and Digital Growth

In September 2018, Krispy Kreme acquired a 74.7% stake in Insomnia Cookies. Insomnia was positioned as a younger, digital-first brand. In 2020, 54% of Insomnia’s sales came from online channels, and the brand sold 65 million cookies.

As of April 4, 2021, Insomnia sold through 191 stores, offered delivery within 30 minutes, and had expanded next-day delivery coverage to more than 95% of the United States.

Krispy Kreme’s growth in the United States and Canada was significantly supported by consolidating Insomnia after the acquisition.

Moving Away From Traditional Wholesale

One of the biggest strategic shifts was the move away from traditional wholesale. According to the article, exiting parts of the traditional wholesale business reduced revenue by $22 million, but this was partly offset by stronger emphasis on fresh bakery products and daily-delivered outlets.

The operating logic changed from long-shelf-life wholesale products toward fresh, short-shelf-life daily distribution, supported by stronger digital capability. In fiscal 2020, 18% of sales came from online channels.

The Hub-and-Spoke Store Network

Krispy Kreme’s store expansion model centered on a hub-and-spoke structure. The hub was typically a larger store plus doughnut production facility. Fresh Shops and Delivered Fresh Daily points served as spokes, allowing the company to increase density, production reach, and delivery coverage within a market.

As of April 4, 2021, Krispy Kreme operated in 30 countries with 1,706 Krispy Kreme and Insomnia branded shops and 7,371 Delivered Fresh Daily locations, for a total of 9,077 locations. Of these, 7,841 were company-owned or controlled by Krispy Kreme, and 1,236 were franchised. At the end of Q1 2021, 96% of global locations were open.

The main formats were:

  • Hot Light Theater Shops and other hubs: immersive, interactive shops often paired with production capacity.
  • Fresh Shops: smaller retail formats primarily designed for selling product and increasing market density.
  • Delivered Fresh Daily, or DFD: daily delivery points for fresh products.
  • E-commerce and delivery: digital channels, which contributed 18% of fiscal 2020 sales.

In the United States, 87% of Hot Light Theater Shops and other hub locations had drive-thru service. Drive-thru contributed 46% of sales in fiscal 2019 and 64% in fiscal 2020.

A new Hot Light Theater Shop took an average of 60 weeks, or 420 days, from lease signing to opening. Construction took 10 to 36 weeks, with costs of $2.4 million to $4.3 million.

A Fresh Shop took 6 to 40 weeks from lease signing to opening, with an estimated investment of $200,000 to $1.5 million.

Krispy Kreme began strategically exiting unprofitable and low-volume locations in 2018 while shifting toward DFD. The company said this affected short-term revenue, but the transition was largely completed by 2020. One-time costs related to the DFD transition and production-line introduction were $4.1 million in fiscal 2019 and $20.5 million in fiscal 2020, covering consulting, labor, and store conversion costs.

Hub Productivity

According to Krispy Kreme’s Q2 2021 results cited in the article, at the end of 2020 each hub in the United States and Canada could cover 37 to 45 spokes, including Fresh Shops and DFD points. In international markets, each hub could cover 65 to 71 spokes.

The company also used hub sales to support the model’s effectiveness. In the United States and Canada, average sales per hub reached $3.6 million, compared with $3.5 million for full-year 2020 and $3.2 million in 2019, when the transition began. In the best-performing international markets, Q2 sales per hub reached $8.0 million, compared with $6.4 million for full-year 2020.

As of July 4, 2021, Krispy Kreme had 9,575 global locations, including 1,726 Krispy Kreme and Insomnia branded shops and 7,849 DFD locations. The company controlled and operated 73% of locations.

From fiscal 2018 to Q1 2021, Krispy Kreme invested $470 million to acquire a large number of franchised stores. It completed deals with 24 dealers, gaining control of 165 U.S. stores and 304 international stores.

Market Planning by Density

Krispy Kreme divided markets into three broad density types:

  • Dense Urban: markets of around 3 million people. These typically supported one doughnut production facility and multiple Hot Light Theater Shops, which in turn supported Fresh Shops and DFD networks.
  • Urban / Suburban: markets of around 500,000 people. These had more vehicle traffic and stronger need for drive-thru service. The network focused on Hot Light Theater Shops, DFD, matching Fresh Shops, and smaller points of sale.
  • Suburban / Rural: markets of around 250,000 to 500,000 people. These typically needed one Hot Light Theater Shop to support DFD locations and delivery.

According to the prospectus cited in the article, Krispy Kreme operated five doughnut production facilities in the United States and 36 production facilities internationally, of which 23 were operated by franchise dealers.

Retail-Partner Distribution

Krispy Kreme also supplied desserts to more than 4,700 Walmart stores in the United States. Nine products ranked in the top 10% of Walmart sales, and within six months of launch they accounted for 6% of Walmart sweet-treat sales.

Growth Priorities

Krispy Kreme’s stated growth strategy included four areas:

  • Strengthen brand engagement with customers and increase purchase frequency.
  • Expand stores in existing and new markets.
  • Continue developing Insomnia, which opened 17 stores in fiscal 2020 and 7 stores in Q1 2021.
  • Improve omnichannel operating efficiency.

The company also believed its omnichannel network had growth potential in unentered markets including China, Brazil, and parts of Western Europe.

Operator Takeaways

For chain operators, the Krispy Kreme case highlights several practical operating questions:

  • How many smaller retail points can one production hub support?
  • Does each hub generate enough sales to justify its production, labor, and logistics cost?
  • Which markets need full experiential stores, and which can be served mainly through delivery points, smaller shops, retail partners, or drive-thru?
  • Can a legacy wholesale model be converted into a daily fresh model without losing too much short-term revenue?
  • Can acquisitions bring new customer segments and digital capability into the system, as Insomnia did for Krispy Kreme?

The broader lesson is that Krispy Kreme was not simply adding stores. It was redesigning the production and distribution network behind the stores, then using hubs, spokes, DFD points, retail partners, digital ordering, and delivery to raise market coverage.

Note: IPO, market-capitalization, share-price, acquisition, valuation, and forward-growth figures above are historical and reflect the article’s 2021 context.