This is an English adaptation of a FoodBud historical article originally published on January 5, 2022.
FoodBud, citing Restaurant Dive and named industry executives, framed 2022 as another difficult year for restaurant operators. The core pressures were familiar but intensified: labor costs, supply-chain disruption, higher input prices, delivery economics and the need to use technology to reduce operating friction.
Industry observers expected North American restaurant chains to keep investing in automation, AI and digital systems to reduce dependence on labor, lower costs and improve throughput.
Brian Warrener of Johnson & Wales University's College said that when SKUs are relatively simple, there is still significant room to automate different operating steps. He cited the idea of robots replacing bartenders as an example of how quickly expectations had changed.
Jim Balis, managing director of strategic operations at CapitalSpring, said restaurant technology had historically lagged other industries and expected more machines to replace human tasks. He pointed to coffee as a category suited to automation because it often involves repeatable combinations of liquid, powder and ice.
Examples cited included:
FoodBud also connected the theme to China, noting that labor pressure and operational complexity had surfaced in disputes such as the internal controversy at Chayan Yuese, and that Nayuki had explored automated tea preparation to improve store efficiency.
Supply-chain disruption, rising ingredient costs and labor shortages pushed many restaurant brands to reduce menu complexity. Alec Haesler, a director at Carl Marks Advisors, said chains might switch between protein options if one protein became too expensive or scarce.
Rick Camac, dean of restaurant and hospitality management at the Institute of Culinary Education, said menu simplification was likely to become a long-term trend rather than a temporary response.
At the DoorDash Mainstreet Strong Conference in October 2021, Hudson Riehle, senior vice president at the National Restaurant Association, said 8 out of 10 full-service restaurants were simplifying menus because of supply-chain problems, while 7 out of 10 quick-service chains were trimming SKUs.
Riehle also said wholesale prices for some protein categories, including beef, chicken, pork and eggs, had risen by double digits. He expected 2022 price increases to be less severe, but said conditions would not improve in the first six months.
Oracle analysis cited by FoodBud said customers wanted shorter ordering and service times. The pandemic-driven surge in drive-thru demand had slowed service speed, and Burger King responded by removing more complex menu items to accelerate operations.
FoodBud added that Chinese operators such as Jiumaojiu's Tai Er Suancaiyu and Song Hotpot were already strong examples of SKU simplification. It also noted a domestic trend toward smaller restaurant formats, as many brands had become more cautious about opening large stores.
FoodBud identified plant-based meat and oat milk as fast-growing categories. Examples included McDonald's testing the McPlant product with Beyond Meat, Impossible Foods partnering with Dog Haus on a ghost-kitchen format, and Starbucks testing a 100% plant-based menu at one Seattle store.
BTIG managing director Peter Saleh said McDonald's plant-based investment appeared to be paying off. BTIG estimated that several of the eight McDonald's test restaurants were selling as many as 500 McPlant sandwiches per week, or about 70 per day, compared with BTIG's initial expectation of 20 to 25 per day.
Camac said plant-based businesses could expand sharply over the following years, noting that he had participated in financing for two plant-based companies and saw rapid growth and clear forecasts. He expected plant-based meat and vegetarian meals to gain popularity until they became common in chain restaurants.
He also said large chain adoption would accelerate plant-based penetration, while plant-based products could help restaurants manage rising meat costs.
FoodBud's China-market view was more cautious: oat milk had advanced faster than plant-based meat, while the substitution effect of both categories was still not especially obvious domestically.
FoodBud cited U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data showing that restaurant employment recovery remained weak relative to broader industry recovery. Low employment and high turnover forced restaurant brands to raise wages through 2021 to attract people who had been unwilling to work in restaurants.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, foodservice employment in November 2021 was about 750,000 workers below February 2020 levels. BLS data also showed that scarcity was pushing wages upward, with average restaurant wages exceeding $16 per hour in October 2021.
Cristin Ohara, managing director at Bank of America, said the industry's biggest hope might be recruiting and retaining younger workers while offering them promotion opportunities. The original article's quotation was cut off mid-sentence.
Camac said there was no quick fix for the restaurant labor market, beyond gradual and difficult work to rebuild the sector's appeal.
These pressures pushed restaurant companies from Darden to Starbucks to raise wages. FoodBud noted that Starbucks had already raised pay in China to stabilize its team, while new coffee and tea brands in the competitive Chinese market continued recruiting from Starbucks.
FoodBud also highlighted a management challenge: younger employees were becoming harder to attract, retain and fully deploy. It cited Jiumaojiu's emphasis on young talent and Banu's large-scale recruitment of university graduates as domestic experiments in this area.
Rising ingredient and raw-material prices pushed brands toward menu price increases. FoodBud noted that price increases had continued after Haitian's price adjustment.
Examples cited in China included:
FoodBud expected pricing decisions to remain a recurring theme through 2022.
In North America, the pricing issue was especially tied to delivery. Many restaurants closed dining rooms in 2020 and 2021 and shifted toward delivery. As dine-in traffic recovered, brands were expected to reassess delivery-channel strategy.
Haesler said that over the following 12 to 14 months, restaurant brands would reassess which strategies were profitable and which could bring customers back into stores. In delivery, brands would also pursue more orders through owned channels rather than third-party platforms.
FoodBud connected this to China by noting that for large chains, the core difference between delivery orders placed through a brand's own mini program and orders from Meituan was platform commission. More owned-channel volume could improve economics, which is why some operators were exploring ways to avoid relying on Meituan.
At the same time, FoodBud noted that Meituan's strength was infrastructure, including delivery pickup lockers. Even if brands controlled their own traffic and potentially their own delivery, they might still need to use Meituan's locker network.
Note: forecasts, financing references, acquisition context and 2022 operating expectations are historical and reflect the article's January 5, 2022 publication date.