The Survival Line After 46,000 Stores: Mixue's Regional-Density Saturation vs. Single-Store Profit Model

This is an English adaptation of a FoodBud historical article originally published on February 21, 2025.

This piece is a deep operator-level read on Mixue's (蜜雪冰城) unit economics as it pushes past 46,000 stores into township markets — and the saturation math that comes with density.

Expansion pace and targets

Mixue's openings slowed to ~6,000 in 2024 (from a faster post-pandemic pace), with 50%+ (3,000+) in townships to defend against rivals and replicate proven formats. Approval pass rates rose from 40% to 50–60%, and existing franchisees (holding ~2.5 stores each) became the main engine (60–70% of openings). For 2025, the target is 7,000 net adds; after Mixue loosened multi-store rules in mid-December 2024, daily site applications spiked to ~8,000 (from ~400), pre-locking ~2,000 stores. Key 2025 increments: townships, denser East/South China county coverage, and the under-penetrated Northwest (where climate barriers deter rivals — 1,000+ stores possible).

The unit-economics tradeoff

Township stores sell ~RMB 90,000/month at a 20%+ margin; high-tier-city stores sell ~RMB 140,000/month at a 10–15% margin — so the lower-cost township unit can approach the same absolute profit. But network-wide, average monthly sales slipped from RMB 143,000 (2023) to RMB 134,000 (2024), and payback lengthened from 14 to 16 months. Competitors felt the township push more acutely: Tianlala (甜啦啦) fell to ~RMB 100,000/month; Guming (古茗) saw thin incremental gains in newer markets like Shandong. Mixue's low-price positioning made it relatively resilient to soft consumption.

Pricing, channels and competition

Mixue nudged prices up selectively — new SKUs drifting from RMB 5–6 to 7–9, plus localized increases in first-tier and high-cost sites — while cushioning sensitivity with promotions (buy-one-get-one) and its public-welfare brand image (a 2017 Chengdu/Chongqing price hike had to be reversed after backlash; this time acceptance was higher). Online share reached ~45% of sales, with Meituan/Ele.me delivery at 28% (up from 18%) and a still-exploratory JD.com tie-up. New-product cadence accelerated to monthly (to counter Guming), though hit-retention is low and classics (fruit tea, ice cream) carry the menu.

Supply chain and overseas

Domestically, five production bases plus 40+ warehouses give nationwide coverage at ~70% utilization, with township delivery via SF Express and individual couriers at cost parity to dense areas. Overseas expansion hit culture and pricing frictions; in 2024 Mixue adjusted Southeast Asia — localizing the Indonesian supply chain and management and easing its low-price insistence (pricing moved from a domestic ~95% to ~85–90%).

The saturation question

For 2025 Mixue is waiving franchise fees on renewing expiring stores and offering raw materials at up to 50% off. But past 50,000 stores, densification pushes payback toward the ~2-year line against 4-year contracts. Future growth hinges on township habit-formation and rival exits; if closure rates climb, sustained concessions may be needed — a real test of supply-chain marginal economics and franchisee loyalty.

Scale context

As of December 31, 2024 Mixue had 46,479 stores (already the world's largest freshly made drinks company on the September count of 45,302). End-retail sales rose from RMB 22.8 billion (2021) to RMB 58.3 billion (2024); revenue was RMB 13.6/20.3 billion (2022/2023) and RMB 18.7 billion (9M 2024); net profit RMB 2.0/3.2 billion and RMB 3.5 billion respectively.